Permatang Pauh: An Analysis

Yesterday, the breaking news from Malaysiakini made me smile and hence the birth of this analysis. In an unprecedented move, Wan Azizah, vacated her Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat to pave way for Anwar to contest in a by-election. The self-professed prime minister-in-waiting, Anwar, has set a deadline on the symbolic Sept 16, 2008 for the loosely-formed Pakatan Rakyat to throw Barisan Nasional (BN) out of the throne; a throne reigns by the latter for the last 50 years.

Prior to Azizah’s move, Anwar has been confidently vocal in securing victory in either of the two parliamentary seats – Kulim and Bandar Tun Razak – both holds by Pakatan Rakyat post March 8, 2008 general election. He also claimed to have enough of the ruling coalition’s MPs to cross over to his side of the battle thus lending him the ticket to be prime minister, a dream he harbours for so long.

To either his credit or detriment, Anwar has been launching a psychological warfare against the widely-criticised BN even before the last general election to jolt himself forward in the country’s most-watched power struggle. However, skeptics condemn Anwar for choosing such a safe-seat for him to return to the political front. Permatang Pauh is, undoubtedly, Anwar’s strong fort even prior to his incarceration and him being unceremoniously kicked out of UMNO.

If you asked me, Anwar could win Permatang Pauh even with his eyes closed and half the required effort to win in any election. Voters of Permatang Pauh worship Anwar next to God. Even when BN almost made a clean sweep in 2004 general election, Permatang Pauh stayed true to Anwar’s ideology silhouetted in a form of the amiable-motherly-tender Azizah. Azizah is a wife all politicians dream of having. Undaunted, she torches Anwar’s darkest political path for the past ten years.

The SPR must now call for a by-election within 60 days as dictated by the law. Who would BN front as a sacrificial lamb in this hopeless fight against Anwar remains a mystery to many. Be that as it may, BN has the advantage of having a bottomless wallet in footing the by-election’s expenses. BN would typically bring its entire machinery and limitless resources to Permatang Pauh to ensure Anwar will never again set foot in the august house. Both sides have an uphill battle to fight in the next sixty days to come.

On the sideline, UMNO has been relentless in its bid to get into bed with PAS under the name of unity and islamic interest. Ironically – and if history bears any measure at all – both parties had been bickering to no end prior to March 8, general election. UMNO now sings a different tune altogether to lure PAS into yet another marriage of convenience. PAS has yet to make up its mind much to Pakatan Rakyat’s chagrin. Statesman, Tun Dr Mahathir calls the effort to marry off UMNO and PAS like trying to cross-breed cat and goat! Oh, he has wicked wits and sense of humor, still.

Statistic shows that Permatang Pauh is a constituency with 69.4% malay voters, 24.5% chinese voters and 6% indian voters. Needless to say, the voters never voted for any party’s manifesto for they have been voting for Anwar. Permatang Pauh to Anwar is like Gua Musang to Tengku Razaleigh. My late grandfather used to say, “kalau Ku Li pakai party cap beruk pun dia tetap akan menang di Gua Musang“. Translation: “if Ku Li is under ‘monkey’s party’ he would still win in Gua Musang”.

Still, Anwar must fend off the sodomy allegation lodged against him by Saiful Bakri. The allegation, to a certain extent, poses as a stumbling block in Pakatan Rakyat’s dream of ruling the country even if PAS and DAP have expressed their confidence that Anwar is, indeed, innocent. His refusal to swear his innocence on the Qur’an raises many eyebrows. How Anwar steer his political boat out of the storm will have an effect in the forthcoming by-election.

Abdullah – despite his lackluster performance in the last general election – rubbished off Anwar’s bid to take over as a bluff. Many UMNO ministers and supporters echo his statement. As we wait with bated breath for one of the hottest by-elections the country will see, BN and Pakatan Rakyat should heed the old proverb: “jangan jadi seperti Pak Pandir, menang sorak kampung tergadai“.

On a completely irrelevant afterthought, when is the government going to reduce the price of fuel considering the lower USD per barrel nowadays?

[Image stolen from Malaysiakini]

19 thoughts on “Permatang Pauh: An Analysis

  1. Madam Writer,

    Still cannot figure what are you for: g’ment or opposition. But, it is such an eloquent writeups, media and blogspehre cannot deny.

    But I still prefer the melancholy, deep sleepless in setiawangsa. Keep up with the writing. I just realize that I come to your blog everyday in search of something new.

    Dear Ainul,

    I can’t be melancholic everyday my friend. There is so much in life don’t you think? Thanks for the vote of confidence – as always.

  2. Elviza,

    Anwar already won in case you havent noticed. His ability to pull crowd is undeniable. What’s left to be watched is how BN will react. I cant wait.

    Dear Papa,

    Anwar has already won yeah? It’s true.

  3. Pingback: Permatang Pauh: An Analysis

  4. Malaysia icons ……Anwar – the voices of rakyat
    be prepare the tough road ahead for next few year for malaysian because changes always come with pain.

    Dear Jan,

    Anwar’s hardcore are you?🙂

  5. the people of permatang pauh will go all out for DSAI HIDUP PAK SHEIKH!!!
    24.5% undi dlm tangan PAK SHEIKH
    PP is ur gateway to the august house.
    Kak Wan a role model of a faithful & sincere
    wife. My highest respect 4 u kak wan.

    Dear JiranPP,

    Ah, I know that they refer him as Pak Sheikh back in Permatang Pauh.🙂

  6. Fairdinkum ,
    I don’t know what the big fuss is all about, DSAI ia a winner in all aspect. The umno guys are having heart aches by the numbers and I won’t be surprised that they will like flies even before the by-election results are announced. I can bet my last ringgit on this. Be warned and bugger of umno and the coolies.

    Dear Aussie guy,

    I havent heard “fairdinkum” slang in a long time! Is it a slang or a valid word? I don’t know. But I share your point of view unconditionally.

  7. Nice analysis. What about Ezam, the 3 months j party jumper? Since Ezam is so eager to have a one-to-one fight with anwar, this would be a tough fight where the venue is a stronghold of PKR previously hold by Azizah. The possibility of Ezam contesting in permatang jauh is 50-50. However UMNO would leave no choice but to put the best players to compete with the de-factor leader PKR, DSAI.

    It would be very hard for BN to gain a victory for this battle, but if succeed it would be a great lost to the oppositions.

    Regarding on wan azizah, its more on loyalty to her husband than a symbol of love by emptying her seats for her husband way through in the parliament. Like you said, Azizah is a wife all politicians dream of having.

    Dear Political Analyst (what a stressful job you have!),

    I cannot comment much on Ezam as I hardly follow his political path. But I must say I have my doubts bout the fellow.

  8. Elviza,

    Women writing politics, what could be sexier? I don’t care what you stand for but more women should start doing what you just do to add color to our politics and analyses.

    If you ask me, Umno will use all power they have to stop anwar. How they are going about to do it I am waiting to see.

    Dear Hashim Ahmad,

    I ll take your comment as a compliment though I cannot assure you that I am, in any way, sexy. My husband will laugh his head off if he reads this. Just like you, I am also waiting to watch the “mother” of all by elections.

  9. Walau apa pun rakyat MESTI TUKAR kerajaan. Yang dah ada sekarang, dah nampak akan korupsi, kroni dan kekayaan individu. Rakyat dah menderita. Kalau di TUKAR mungkin elok dan mungkin tak elok. Apa salahnya kita rakyat cuba. Kalau tak elok, 4 tahun lagi kita TUKAR pulak. Kalau elok, KITA RAKYAT dapat perubahan. KITA RAKYAT BERKUASA!

    Dear Azisirikit,

    The power – as it has always been – is in Rakyat’s hand. The politicians tend to forget that. At the end of the day we are all human and hence we forget!

  10. Dear Miss Elviza,
    Many Malaysian believe that the one who is going to be the next PM must have the letter N as his innitial.Najib at the moment seem contented that it is his innitial all along.

    Much like ‘A’ was innitially thought to be for Anwar ,as it turn out ,it was Pak Lah who claimed it.The letter ‘N’ has a contender too!!

    Something real significant going to happen to political landscape of Malaysia..as you can see , the planet ‘Uranus’ has cast dark shadow on our country (again !!),the soothsayer in me read this as a very significant omen.
    As you can recalled the last time ‘Uranus ‘ cast a shadow on us ,approximately 10 years ago,it was a time of turmoil.

    As our nation fate is closely associated with this Planet ,this planetry cycle has been closely observed by me , a parttime soothsayer.

    With present situation notwithstanding, DSAI might end up disqualified fr contesting for some silly technical reason or another (eg the form was signed 0.2 mm below dotted line )or being jail again.

    This would result in massive outpouring of grieve and disillusionment with the present goverment by PAKATAN supporters and the rest of apolitical Malaysian like myself.

    This might end up with snap election after a vote of no confidence or massive ‘lompat’ that has not been seen before.
    Of course the BN goverment is going to be replaced with PAKATAN goverment.

    Since Azizah is no longer an MP ,public demand that Anwar clan be his replacement,in which case Azmin is not the one besides the letter ‘A’ has been used by then ,formerly known and largely forgotten Mr Abdullah the ex PM.

    The only available person is non other than NURULIZZAH and the last letter of RAHMAN is fulfilled!!!

    I think she would be an excellent choice and a breath of fresh air that the country badly needed .

    She can start on a clean slate.

    With all bad blood and history that the present senior leaders of PAKATAN have either by uttering hurtful words or deeds amongst themselves ,rakyat would rather hear what Izzah has to say and lead the country with new energy and virgour.

    This is what happen in Lithuania after they broke off from Russia.Their old leaders with too much historical baggeges were sidelined and the nation bravely passed the baton to their younger leaders…I suppose we should do the same.

    As for the present ‘N’ who was promised the post of UMNO president in 2010 ,his destiny would still be fulfilled come 2010,no doubt about it ,as UMNO were a big aircraftcarrier that take ages to turn the keel ….in this time of rapid decision making, they can take all the time it the world as they need while all the population just move on.

    This is not far fetched possibility, we still have an ‘N’ as our last PM (from the word RAHMAN) and a new vibrant ,incorruptible,dynamic and fresh leadership that all of us hope for.

    After all the dust settled, the loudest cry from the letter ‘R’ would be heard throughout the land ….Rosmah la ,who else.

    If you care to remember later on ,remember that you hear it first from me …mark my word .

    Mr KALAHARI (i am hot)

    Dear Mr. Kalahari (I am hot),

    Tuan doktor, patient dah panggil tuh Tuan doktor… sudah2 lah berblog dalam blog orang, bawak2 lah buat blog sendiri🙂

  11. Sis Elviza,

    I agree with many readers that your commentary is very interesting.

    I think PP is the right choice for Anwar. Firstly, it’s his baptism in politics and home base. 2ndly, Kak Wan is a reluctant politician and play a better role as a wife supporting Anwar.

    Bro Cheang,

    Great minds think alike huh? LOL

  12. Elviza,
    Why is it a novice, non-political writer writes a more perceptive, insightful and balanced opinion than our current bunch of established, entrenched mainstream political writers? Is it because they write from their young heart, and can express their unbiased views freely and unencumbered?

    In the 1990s, there was a TV programme produced by BBC on Great Railway Journey. One of the programmes featured the train journey across Peninsular Malaysia (can’t remmeber on KTM or E&O).

    But what I clearly remember are the scenic beauty of Bukit Merah and one of the songs chosen for the background music. Yes, P. Ramlee’s Azizah. It must be a tribute, a deep respect for our amiable-motherly-tender Azizah, as you described her.

    As we all know the circus is in town … and do you think DSAI will cheekily say “Bring in the clown”.

    aMiR

    My brother aMiR,

    Whatever is that, dear Sir, is the blog forthcoming already?🙂

  13. Fuiyo…dahsyat la analysis lu…cayala…kalah journo MSM kita…wish I had written that..ceh!

    BTW…Pak Lah announced a monthly review of fuel prices…don’t know how that will help..or not help…

    Hey…you are the analyst! Give us something on this!

    Heh heh…

    Tehsin

    Eh Tehsin, jangan lah puji lebih. Ini main hentam, agak-agak, belasah jer nih. LOL LOL LOL. See you again next Tuesday with your delicious kueh?

  14. Hi Elviza,

    A great review. Certainly PP is the mother of by-elections. Can’t wait to see the drama and party at PP.

    I think the best candidate to have a one on one fight with Anwar is Pak Lah himself. Why not? It is like a gun draw. One-to-one or head-on fight. Who win stay and who lose out, to clear all the political haze!

    Just a suggestion but I think it will the best ever by-election if it does happen.

    Hi Rosli,

    As aptly put by the star columnist, Jocelyn Tan (though I don’t always agree with her), Permatang Pauh is the mother of all by-elections!

  15. Sis Elviza,

    It’s to your great credit, some were curious of your political leaning. Being neutral gives you more credibility.

    Bro Cheang,

    Ah, to those closed to me (yourself included), they know where I stand…

  16. Pingback: Anwar Returns to Parliament « Write Away

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